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Whole Truth the Dutch auction

publish this article illuminating about the functioning of the Dutch auction.
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Bidplaza and Dutch auction
Technical analysis of lesser-known lotteries in the world
Piero Tofy

Bidplaza and Dutch auction: a technical analysis of lotteries in the world among the least clear

The first time I heard about Dutch auction did not want to believe that there are fools who sold a Porsche for a few € and dozens of electronic devices such as I-Pods and PlayStations by the value of several hundred to a few euro cents. Curious, I gathered information on their page http://www.bidplaza.it/t_contact.php about the operation of this' idea mangiasoldi of the century. Briefly summarized, the 'big idea is that yes, you can actually buy an item for a few cents if your bid is unique (there are other people who have offered your number) and low foot (all bid lower have been taken by your feet or 2 people). Small detail: to make a 'bid you must pay a "commission", which at the time of writing Bidplaza is equal to 2.00 is Where is the gain for the owners you ask?

Take a case of 'example

- An iPod Touch 16 GB costs to the market price is about 400.
- Bidplaza is able to cover the cost of 'the subject deals with only 200 (200 * 2 = 400 )

It follows therefore, that an object that has received NO bids produces a gain (or loss, but it a case that never seems to have occurred because there seem to be many people who tempts an iPod Touch 2 €) equal to (N - 200) * 2 . Just say you? Read on.

I tried to sign up for the 'note on http://www.bidplaza.it and I tried to do some bet, even with the 'bonus of 4.00 is inviting who is given to the registration.


"At least one offer only the 'I have good idea, pity it is not the low-footer" I thought. Then I tried to play with other objects and doing less deals sopprattutto (every click of the mouse corresponds to a charge of 2.00 is !) Feet or less the result was similar.

footer watched with attention the site and there was something I fell to my eye:


"Winners recurring


seemed that there were people footer kissed by luck than others. Full-HD TV, iPod, Porshe, Mobile ... hypotheses were two:

- These people were extremely fortunate (something which I believed and how little to show after this assumption is completely excluded)
- there is a technique that allowed these people to accapparrarsi auctions.

The question is ... as they did?

To answer this and other questions like "Bidplaza How much?" Or "Is there a way to statistically reduce the chance of losing?" IDEAI Bidplaza Statistics ( http://www.pierotofy.it / pages/projects/project_365.html ). Bidplaza fact at the end of each auction to publish the results of each whole or partial, and based on that data, the program allows you to process the information interesting. I will not explain the details of how it works but I would just show the results produced (however you are welcome to try the program yourself).

The first question that I wanted to get an answer was "Statistically, what are the items that I most likely to win?"

The result was fairly predictable:


0.463 = 1% chance about 200 to win, assuming that every other person carries one and only one bid


The odds of winning were smaller in inverse proportion to the value of 'object (the foot' object is low and the foot had a chance to win).

The second question I asked myself was "Statistically, what earns Bidplaza for each object?"

A little 'stunned, I confirmed some of my suspicions:


The number of deals was so high that Bidplaza from the sale of an iPod Touch commercial value of 400.00 is obtained is very 5059.50. Not to mention the 'offer' s agent.


The picture was clear: Bidplaza was making tons of money, some people lost money and a small circle of "foot lucky" rather win the property for a few euro cents.

C 'was just a' last difficult question to answer: "How to win and enter this circle?"

worked for a while 'days of the program and created an internal statistical function can the bidding process the data objects identified above, which offers the so-called "rare". The basis of this reasoning c 'was the fact that the' human being is a machine that responds to stimuli and that every choice we make is not purely random (like the lottery numbers for the lot). For example, every day we are bombarded with advertising telling us how much a particular object. It was obvious that - statistically - there was and a tendency to choose certain numbers over others.

After the work I tried to apply it on a Nintendo Wii at that time was to 'auction. The results were as follows:


I was suggested to target is 2.20 and 2.26 is. In addition to this it is interesting to note the slight preference to choose odd numbers over even numbers

I pointed these two figures and the results were interesting, my offer of 2.26 is term of 'auction was unique - as calculated statistically - but it was not the foot low c' were in fact only two bids feet lower than mine.

I tried again with other objects but the results were equal to if not worse (azzeccai not even an offer). My question on how to become one of those "lucky" winners still remained unanswered. But not for long.

Having exhausted all other possibilities, the fact remained that perhaps these "lucky" players did many, many feet offers casual player who tries his luck spending 2.00 is hoping to buy a car in a few tens of €.

Unfortunately, gentlemen, the verité players is that there are "professionals" on sites like BidPlaza that - mathematically - almost entirely exclude the casual players from winning. Theory

easily demonstrated: take as an example once again our iPod Touch 16 GB worth € 400.00. Suppose one of these players "professionals" (rather call them "rabid") finds that spending € 200.00 (the weather) is an acceptable price for an iPod. Maybe then the PUE sell on eBay for full price and would get a revenue of € 200.00.

We know that you can buy at € 200.00 Bidplaza 100 bids. So he only is able to cover all bids ranging from 0.01 to 1.00 euro cents.

At the time of writing, a 16 GB iPod Touch Bidplaza is sold on the weighted average price of 1.87 € and covering all the deals between € 1.00 and € 2.00 's author has probability 1 / 2 to win the 'object. Same thing Pue be done on foot precious goods such as TV Full-HD (where the price is around € 1700 and one of these players PUE considered "acceptable" cost of 900 € = 450 deals) to win the 'object. Not to mention the fact that Bidplaza offers bonus offers proportional to the number of offers that you buy (foot loads' s account and will pay homage to the foot). Taking into account that there Bidplaza on the bottom of one of these players (which does not exclude the fact that we put d 'Agreement, but this is only a' hypothesis) do a little 'you the number of options open to you you, the player who step only bid on an item to win.

This theory is confirmed by the fact that the findings of many auctions you may notice that near the winning bids are in sequence (there are no deals have not been played), sign that a player or footer " professionals "have put a lot of offers (multiple offers on a range Bidplaza are made, I make an offer on the range from 1.00 to 2.00 € thereby aiming at € 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, ... , 1.99, 2.00 in one shot).

This suggests that the 'only way to have any chance of winning is to focus on items whose value is not more than 100-200 euro, because these players do not have the reason to spend so much money deals an object that is worth little. In fact among the least expensive items there is a great Varieté winners.

You will say, "Well the car I like, I try the same, maybe not win but the chance to win there 'is' I still"

Wrong. The chance to win a Porsche or any good of high value in the presence of these players is zero (or almost).

Suppose you have a player "professional" that makes 100 offers, say from 0.01 to 1.00 euro.

This suggests that to win the good, imagine a hypothetical case in which there are more people doing other deals, we have to focus offers 100 + 1. The first 100 will be used to cancel bids of the professional player, the 'last to get a new offer only low-footer. So our minimum spending amount to the expense of player "professional" + 2.00. In one case

footer real probably many of those offers will gie 100 were canceled by other players Occasional (l 'Unity is strength), while unfortunate that you do not know what the other players have bet occasional forcing you to have to focus all 100 deals to be sure to win the good.

icing on the cake around the net I read several comments from people who spoke of "Being able to take the 'foot low unique bid until a few hours or minutes before the end of' boom '; the reason because it is very simple. Aim at 'last minute can prevent the one who had the' lowest unique bid footer to start the hunt for the new winning bid. No wonder then if your offer is canceled shortly before of the term 'auction.

you are wondering then, you can win on this site or not? The answer varies depending on your availability of cash:

- If you want groped luck from time to time by one or two bids for the subject Never point on high-value goods such as cars, TV, mobile phone or any thing of value € 100-200 over.
- If you have large amounts of money and are willing to risk, with a little 'accuracy in the selection of features and with a good dose of luck can be to focus on higher value goods.

conclude by listing the big three of Dutch auction in Italy (you know that are popping up like mushrooms lately ...)
- http://www.bidplaza.it
- http://www.youbid.it

I hope that my experience is helpful for many people and can avoid unitili waste of money to grease a foot scams and brilliant ideas of 'years: the Dutch auction.

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